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How to Read the Predictions
Toss-Up
Margin under 1.2 runs. Either team could win — O/U total may still have value.
Lean
Margin of 1.2–2.4 runs. Meaningful edge from offense, pitching, and park — worth a moderate play.
Strong Edge
Margin of 2.5+ runs. Strongest signal for a moneyline or run-line bet.
Green score
Predicted to win by 2+ runs. Brighter green = larger edge.
Red score
Predicted to lose by 2+ runs. Fades to navy as margin tightens.
Navy score
Within half a run — coin flip. Treat as toss-up regardless of badge.
Blended ERA
Pitcher ERA blends current season with career average. April = 70% career / 30% season to smooth out small-sample noise, shifting toward 70% season by August.
Bullpen ERA
Starters pitch ~5.5 innings on average. The model applies each team's live bullpen ERA to the remaining ~3.5 innings, since those runs count too.
Hot / Cold trends
Offense blends 60% full-season R/G with 40% last-10-games R/G. ▲ Hot means the team is scoring 0.5+ runs above their season average over the last 10 games.